US Container Imports Near All-Time High as July 24 Tariff Deadline Approaches

As the current US import surcharge nears its expiry, new tariff measures could be on the way. So why are American ports about to hit an all-time shipping record?

The answer is not what you might expect.

Retailers are not importing more because demand is strong. They are importing more because a deadline is coming. On July 24, the current 10% import surcharge expires. A new, potentially higher round is expected in August, although no official effective date has been announced. So companies are doing what any business would do: pull three months of orders into one month to lock in the lower rate.

That is what 2.47 million TEUs looks like: not a demand boom, but a race against the tariff clock.

What Happened

The numbers are big. But they hide as much as they reveal.

The Volume Numbers

July 2026 imports are forecast at 2.47 million TEUs, up 3.3% from July 2025. That number breaks the previous all-time monthly record of 2.4 million TEUs, set in May 2022.

May came in at 2.24 million TEUs, up 14.9% year over year. June is projected at 2.33 million TEUs, up 18.7%. The first half of 2026 totaled an estimated 12.77 million TEUs, about 2% above the first half of 2025.

Import volumes have risen sharply, with strong growth likely continuing into July, said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. Much of this increase reflects frontloading ahead of expected tariff increases. (NRF Global Port Tracker, July 8, 2026)

The July 24 Expiry

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 caps a balance-of-payments surcharge at 150 days unless Congress extends it. The current 10% surcharge took effect February 24, 2026. It expires at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24 by operation of law.

As of mid-July 2026, no extension legislation was moving through Congress.

This year's early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August, said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

Background and Context

To understand why July 24 matters, you need to know what Section 122 actually is.

The Legal Challenge to Section 122

The US Court of International Trade ruled in May 2026 that the presidential proclamation imposing the surcharge exceeded the statutory requirements of Section 122. The court found the February proclamation did not properly identify the balance-of-payments deficit required by statute.

The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals stayed that ruling on June 11, 2026, pending the government's appeal. Importers continue to pay the 10% surcharge while the appeal proceeds.

The appeal remains pending before the Federal Circuit. Because the surcharge is scheduled to expire on July 24, the appeal could become partially or fully moot unless additional issues remain before the court.

Section 301 and Future Tariff Actions

The administration has not officially designated Section 301 as a replacement for Section 122. However, the administration is widely expected to rely on Section 301 authorities for future tariff actions. On June 2, 2026, USTR published findings in 60 separate Section 301 investigations covering forced-labor trade practices. USTR proposed 12.5% additional duties on 46 of those countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Japan, and South Korea. Fourteen economies were proposed at 10%. (ustr.gov, June 2026)

USTR is expected to conclude its review around July 20, 2026, though no official deadline has been confirmed. No formal effective date for Section 301 duties has been announced.

Unlike Section 122, Section 301 has no statutory rate cap and no time limit.

Who Is Affected and How

Goods clearing before the Section 122 expiry face one tariff structure. Goods clearing afterward may face a different one if new Section 301 duties take effect.

Goods Clearing Before July 24

Goods that clear before any new Section 301 duties take effect remain subject only to the existing Section 122 surcharge. No Section 301 effective date has been announced as of mid-July 2026.

Only two container ships were at anchor at Southern California ports on July 2. None were expected during the July 4 holiday weekend, according to Hackett Associates.

The Demand Cliff After July 24

NRF projects August imports at 2.22 million TEUs, down 4.5% year over year. That is a drop of 250,000 TEUs from July's forecast record. September and October are each projected at 1.99 million TEUs.

The year-over-year declines for September and October are forecast at 5.7% and 3.8% respectively.

What to Watch

Here is what to track in the next 30 days.

• Around July 20, 2026: USTR is expected to conclude its Section 301 review and announce its next steps.

• July 24, 2026: Section 122 surcharge expires automatically at 12:01 a.m. EDT. No executive action can extend it.

• August 2026: NRF projects imports fall to 2.22 million TEUs. Watch for an official Section 301 effective date.

• Federal Circuit: Watch whether the pending appeal in Oregon v. United States continues after the Section 122 surcharge expires, and whether the court addresses any remaining refund issues for the importer-plaintiffs.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974?

Section 122 allows the president to impose a temporary import surcharge to address balance-of-payments deficits. The surcharge is capped at up to 15% and expires automatically after 150 days unless Congress votes to extend it. The current 10% surcharge took effect February 24, 2026 and expires July 24.

Why are US container imports so high in July 2026?

Retailers and importers are accelerating shipments ahead of the July 24 expiry of Section 122 and an expected new round of Section 301 tariffs in August. NRF calls this an early peak season driven by tariff frontloading.

Which countries are covered by the proposed Section 301 forced-labor tariffs?

USTR proposed 12.5% additional duties on 46 countries, including China, Vietnam, India, Japan, and South Korea. Fourteen other economies face a proposed 10% rate. The proposal is pending USTR's final action. No effective date has been confirmed.

What was the previous US container import record?

The previous all-time monthly record was 2.4 million TEUs, set in May 2022 during the post-pandemic freight surge. The July 2026 forecast of 2.47 million TEUs would break that record by roughly 70,000 TEUs.

Can Congress extend Section 122?

Yes, but no extension legislation is pending. Section 122 expires by operation of law on July 24. Only an act of Congress can extend it beyond the 150-day statutory cap. The administration is expected to rely on Section 301 authorities for future tariff actions.

Sources

1. National Retail Federation. "Import Cargo Expected to Set New Record Ahead of Potential August Tariffs." July 8, 2026.

2. USTR. "USTR Makes Findings and Proposes Action in 60 Section 301 Investigations." June 2, 2026.

3. US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. "Stay of CIT Section 122 Ruling." June 11, 2026.

4. gCaptain. "U.S. Container Imports Set to Break Pandemic-Era Record Ahead of Tariff Deadline." July 2026.

5. Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. "US Trade Court Strikes Down Section 122 Tariffs; Government Appeals." May 2026.

6. Federal Register. Proclamation 11012: Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge To Address Fundamental International Payments Problems. FR Doc 2026-03824. February 25, 2026.

7. US Court of International Trade. Oregon v. United States & Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. United States. Slip Op. 26-47, Court Nos. 26-01472 & 26-01606. May 7, 2026.